War Games

Disclaimer: I do not endorse the use of the following methods. I do not advocate violence, terror or any other kind of illegal activity. The following thesis is merely the result of a bored mind that shouldn’t be allowed to play unsupervised. Having said that let us begin with…..

War games

The point of terrorist is to effect a change on the object of their attention. That change may be to kill and maim. Most likely the object of terrorism is to force an enemy to become something else or to move in a desired direction. For example to embrace a religion such as Islam. Or to embrace a political ideology such as Communism. These nudges by terrorist move a people, group or country along by little steps that don’t always have to be successful.

Recently just a short block away from my home a mail carrier found a white powdery substance in a mailbox. Because of past terrorist attacks reported widely in the news where people have died or gotten sick from someone mailing anthrax to government offices the mail carriers are trained to watch out for this. This training combined with the previous attacks has breed paranoia and fear. The result is the local government turned out the fire department, police department, hazmat team etc to investigate. The street was blocked off. Traffic diverted. Resources used. A mail carrier decontaminated. Why? Someone put baby powder in a mail box.

This got me thinking. The first terrorists attacks don’t always have to be successful but they have to be real. The anthrax letters are one example. 9-11 is another. The shoe bomber is a third. The next set of attacks have to have at least the promise of success. Then the rest after that can be fakes. For example the baby powder mentioned before. The unknown factor in all the attacks is weather or not the attack is real. In fact it would be better for the terrorist cause if the later attacks are fakes. Human nature being what it is the rash of fake attacks and the accompanying copycat attacks by disturbed persons not associated with the terrorists will over time begin to lull the victims into a reduced state of preparedness.

Fake attacks can be useful too. For example; an organized mailing of envelops with baby powder in them from all over the country to the Capital in Washington DC would shut down the government mail system. The disruption would mean material would not reach their destination in time. Opportunities would be lost. Vast amounts of money and resources would be spent and diverted over a few ounces of baby powder. Certainly a cost effective and safe operation to carry out. This could be timed to occur as a distraction for another operation. Or a real attack of anthrax letters could occur immediately after the fake to take advantage of spent resources and human fatigue. A mail handler thinking he’s got a hold of another baby powder letter might just mishandle it and someone could get sick or die. Then the terror begins anew. The new fear would be greater and the government and country is nudged one step further towards the terrorist goal.

By definition a group who uses terror as a weapon usually is operating against an organization it cannot confront with a frontal assault. This gorilla, or asymmetrical, war is therefore one of attrition. The use of terror is designed to wear down the opponent’s resources as well as the will to fight. To loosely paraphrase Mao, as long as the gorillas don’t loose they win. Timing is crucial in forcing a capitulation to the terms of the terrorist. For example. Our country is fighting two wars over seas using vast amounts of money and recourses. Our economy is shaky right now while we are in a recession. Our political system is very contentious with each party pushing hard for votes and power. The people are polarized more than any other time since before the Civil War. Carefully timed attacks against our infrastructure could cause massive disruptions of our goods and products being delivered. Key bridges on the Mississippi River could be damaged or destroyed. Some sort of maritime disaster on the Great Lakes could occur such as a toxic spill or a ship sunk in a narrow passage. Coupled with an oil refinery attack or two and our economy could be pushed to the brink. Our recourses would be needed at home and our forces may need to be reduced or even pulled out of the two wars. The terrorists could more easily take over Iraq and Afghanistan. Pakistan could be threatened and their nuclear arsenal seized. The terrorists don’t have to win. They just don’t have to loose.

Again these are just the thoughts of a bored brain. But the scary part is, if I can think of this surly the terrorists can. Pleasant dreams.